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Monday, March 24, 2008

The Past, Present & Future (The Good, The Bad & The Ugly)

Not to long ago the following scenario could have taken place and I don't think half of anyone would have thought anything of it at all. For this example I will use the generic white male 1 and white male 2 as the candidates for president.

Early in the primary season white male 1 is the favorite because of his long standing connections with the status quo. As time goes on people start to give white male 2 another look and like his message of change, so he starts to win some states.
Before Super Tuesday it is a two man race, change vs. experience. They continue to jocky for the front position swapping victories. As the primary season starts to wind down it looks as if white male 2 will not be caught and should get the nomination.
Somewhere along the way the shine starts to tarnish off of white male two's image and people again give him a second look. This time the outcome appears to be different and for the first time it looks like this candidate will not win in the general election, should he get there.
The superdelegates all get together and decide that for the good of the party they will vote for white male 1 because he has a better shot of victory in the general election. This influx of super delegate votes puts white male 1 over the top and he end up winning the nomination.
But for the strongest supporters of white male 2 most of the country doesn't even realize or care what has happened and life goes on. In the general election regardless of who they initially supported people will vote for white male 1 becuase he is the nominee.

Now, fastforward to today. The above story should sound very familiar. Swap Clinton with white male 1 and Obama with white male 2.

The one main difference with reality and the above story is that if the super delegates do flip the nomination over to Clinton, thinking she has a better shot at victory in November, all hell will break loose. I think that 90% of all the african american voters will pull out of the democratic party in protest. Intended or not this has turned into a race of races. One race feeling they are owed something and if it appears to be taken away, forgivness will not be given.

I am not saying I think Clinton would be a better president, but I am saying that regardless, the super delegates can not push her to the nomination because that will be the demise of the Democratic party, and they know it. We are stuck with Obama for good, bad or ugly at this point.

1 comments:

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